Tuesday, May 3, 2011

OBAMA'S SOUTH ASIA STRATEGY:WAITING FOR A TECTONIC SHIFT

The murderer is murdered, the haunter is haunted, the terrorist is shot down,the devil has gone to hell, the world became a safer place. The hunting down of the most wanted terrorist of the world in the midnight of the sunday by the elite USA navy SEALs in a millionarie mansion in Abottabad, a fortified garrison town home to the Pak military academy without the knowledge of the pak military surprised the world. The americans erupted in joyous celebration waving national flags across america welcomed the death of one of the greatest murderers of the mankind in the modern era. The president of USA jubilantly said Justice has been done and that day was a good day for America. While the USA and its allies revelled in the successful hunting down of the dreaded criminal after almost an decade, it throws open some important questions. What will be America's next strategy in the South Asia? What about Af-Pak Policy? where it will go now?

America's south Asia policy mainly revolves around India, Pakistan and Afghanistan which are separately discussed.

Pakistan's war on terror is exposed and its military militant nexus became public. The Americans are furious on Pak. How come a country getting billions of dollars in aid annually for the fight against terror can shelter the most wanted terrorists right inside the garrisson town near the national capital. The former dictactor Musharuf had repeatedly told the world that either Osama is killed or is in Afghanistan. How can Pak defend itself from such a blatant lie. Adding salt to injury America unilaterally publicly declared that the operation was carried out solely by american military without the involvement of Pakistan. The already strained relationship after the incident of CIA agent Raymond Davies is heading towards south. The congress back home in America will question the logic of continuing the aid to Pak through Kerry Lugar Bill. If they block the aid then pak will asphyxiate for its economic and military sustenance.The higher echeleons of USA started questioning the committment of Pak on the war on the terror. Without the American aid and support Pak will be left in the lurch with its all weather friend China in the region. The role of Pak in Afghanistan will be questioned overtly in international diplomatic circles. USA will now no more be blackmailed by pakistan for more aid in return for joining the war on terror after the death of Osama, who was the bargaining tool for Pak. The bad news already doing the rounds is that President Obama will not visit Pak which he promised during his visit to India in last November will be another blow to Pakistan.

The death of Osama would not have come at a better time than this when Obama administration is chalking out its exit strategy from Afghanistan. This will definitely boast the rating of Obama in the coming presidential election in 2012. The strong statement made by the secretary of state Hillary Clintron to Taliban after the death of Osama signifies that the process for flushing out Taliban will be hastened and the responsibility of security will be handed over to the Karzai Govt in a phased manner very soon. The bulgeoning defence budget is already putting strain on the national exchequre snowballing the budget deficit. So the Af-Pak strategy will be recalibrated where Pak will have minimal say unlike before.

Now everybody around the world including USA knew it is a open secret that who give sanctuary to the terrorists which India is saying to the world for the decades. The perpetrator of the 26/11 are still roaming free in the alleys and labyrinths of Pak with impunity where the state protects them like Osama in a masion in a cantonment area. The nothward juggernaut of Indo-US relationship and the southward Pak-USA relation is a boon for India. The tightening of the aid will definitely restrict the military procurement of Pak meant to be used against India. The Image deficit of Pak military,ISI and its civilian leadership will put them in the Backfoot in SouthAsia and will be viewed with suspicion globally.The Indo-US relationship which is on the right track after the strategic Indo-US Nuclear deal will flourish as USA is fully backing India as a counterweight to China in the region and India's aspiration to attain the global superpower status with backing from USA.

So the death of Osama will cause a sea change in America's South Asia policy especially towards its chequered ride with Pak and its Af-Pak policy.

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